2010 World Cup Early Betting Preview

December 8, 2009

Charlize Theron presented the draw that officially started the countdown to South Africa 2010. With 186 days to go until South Africa kick it all off against Mexico on June 11^th,the anticipation has started to build as the draw threw up some intriguing groups. Its early days and not a time to be lumping on but there may be some decent odds to be found if you shop around. Let’s take a look at the current best odds and where you can invest your hard earned money.

Outright Betting

The Favourites

If we make the bold assumption that the bookies’ favourites will win their groups we can plot their potential route to the final and pick out those with the clearest path. It’s difficult to look past the two favourites of Spain and who won’t meet until the final if they win their groups. So we want to avoid the bottom half of the draw if we’re taking them on. I have a good feeling for England under Fabio Capello and the draw has handed them a real opportunity. They can’t face Brazil or Spain until the semis and if they win their group they are likely to avoid Germany and Argentina until the final. Germany have perhaps the toughest group and would probably face Argentina in the quarters. I expect one of these two to be contesting a semi final against Spain.

Spain (best 9/2) – they are probably the best team and rightful favourites. If they don’t choke they can win it but they are in the toughest half of the draw. Winning their group will mean they can’t face Brazil until the final.

Brazil (11/2) – if they qualify from a tough group it won’t get any easier with Chile and then Netherlands, before possibly England in the semis. They could play Spain in the last 16 if either fails to top their group.

England (6/1) –should have no problems winning the group which should keep them away from the dangerous countries until Brazil in the semis.

Argentina (10/1) – in Spain’s half and will probably meet Germany en route if they win a tricky looking group. They have the players but can crazy Maradonna steer his team through a major tournament as he has before?

Italy (12/1) – they have arguably the easiest group but will face Spain or Brazil in the quarters which may be as far as they will go with a very ordinary looking team.

Germany (14/1) – a very tough group will be hard to qualify from, never mind win. They are in Spain’s half and Argentina are likely to stand in their way.

Netherlands (14/1) – they are in a winnable group but will meet Spain or Brazil by the quarter finals.

France (16/1) – will be pretty happy with their group and could meet England in the quarter finals.

The Rest

In a nutshell there is almost zero point betting outright on any nation outside those mentioned above. The hosts South Africa (150/1) will struggle to get out of their group. Portugal (25/1) have Brazil and Spain directly in their path. As do Ivory Coast (33/1) and Chile (50/1). Uruguay (100/1), USA (80/1), Ghana (80/1), Serbia (80/1) & Nigeria (100/1) could all find the draw open up for them if any of the top seeds fail but a quarter final place would be a major achievement.

Shortlist: Brazil, England & Argentina

Other Markets

Top Goalscorer

This is a popular market and often hard to predict. We have to look at groups where goals are likely to flow and at teams who are likely to go deep. Spain and Brazil strikers obviously head the market and they are to be considered. England scored a lot of goals in qualifying and Wayne Rooney has found his groove. Star names such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Samuel Eto’o and Didier Drogba are unlikely to progress too far and can probably be ignored. My sneaky feeling for Argentina brings their strikers into the equation, and could Michael Owen yet force his way into a fairytale story?

Shortlist: David Villa, Luis Fabiano, Wayne Rooney, Gonzalo Higuain

Top African Nation

I don’t expect any to reach the quarter finals but those with possibly the best chance are Nigeria (11/2) and Cameroon (6/1). I’ve ignored Ivory Coast (Ev) due to their odds and terrible draw. I don’t see South Africa (16/1) or Algeria (40/1) getting out of their group, and Ghana (9/2) are in arguably the hardest group so are difficult to back.

Pick: Nigeria

Highest Scoring Group

Group H looks most likely to produce goals. The four teams are either prolific going forward and/or leaky at the back – just the blend we’re looking for. However the bookies think the same way so the 9/2 odds aren’t great. There are several tight looking groups where goals may be at a premium and this market might just be one where we back the outsider. Group A had the third highest average goals per game in qualifying so we’ll tentatively back this at 7/1.

Pick: Group A

Match Betting

It may be folly to pick out group matches so early but there are often trends that crop up at major tournaments and you might be able to predict an upset or two. Fancied teams seem to have a habit of starting sluggishly and may be worth opposing in their opening games – especially if they are playing at altitude and unused to such conditions. Likewise, a team with two wins in the bag will often take their foot off the pedal and hand easy points to another team in the group who are scrapping for their lives. There are also a fair number of draws in World Cup finals and some of the tight groups look like draw-fests – Group D for example.

Opening games such as Uruguay v France, Argentina v Nigeria, Germany v Australia, Italy v Paraguay all look ripe for upsets.

The final round of group games could see Chile and Cameroon benefit if Netherlands and Spain are already through.

There are always shocks, the trick is to pick ‘em and back ‘em!

BruiseLee

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