Just how big is that Golden Boot?!

May 17, 2010

What have Gerd Muller, Gary Lineker, Ronaldo and Eusebio got in common?? Well other than being World Cup icons and synonymous with the art of goalscoring, they are all the proud recipients of the Golden Boot, the FIFA award for the World Cup’s top scorer.

With the amount of awards dished out at the end of the World Cup, seemingly growing with every tournament, (currently 6, with, goalkeepers, young players and even the most entertaining team, being recognised), and the prestige of these awards being diminished (the first World Cup All Star team featured 11 players, one for each position, the 2006 World Cup, had 23 players in the team of the tournament, and featured 9 midfielders), the Golden Boot award remains the purest form of recognition for the Worlds most potent striker, and the one they all wish to win. But it’s just an award, it doesn’t really matter does it? “As long as the team wins” is the typical response, given, when a striker is asked this question directly. Well anyone watching Chelsea’s Didier Drogba’s reaction at being denied the chance to take a penalty to claim the Premier League award, last Sunday, would have seen first hand, just how important these accolades are to the top players, and what better stage on which to prove you’re the best in the business, than the World Cup.

So who will win the coverted prize this time around?? Well previous Golden Boot winners tend to have fallen into one of 4 categories:

The Genuinely Great

Sandor Kocsis of Hungary who scored 11 goals in 1954;

Just Fontaine of France with 13 goals (a record unlikely to be broken) in 1958;

Euesbio with 9 goals in 1966;

Gerd Muller with 10 in 1970;

Gary Lineker with 6 for England in 1986;

Hristo Stoichkov - 6 for Bulgaria in 1994

Ronaldo with 8 for Brazil in 2002.

Those Fulfilling their Potential

Grzegorz Lato of Poland with 7 goals in 1974;

Mario Kempes with 6 for Argentina on home soil in 1978 (Kempes had failed to register in the 1974 World Cup or in the 1978 Group Stages);

Paolo Rossi with 6 for Italy in 1986 (Rossi, had served a 2 year suspension for being involved in a betting scandal in the lead up to the World Cup, and again didn’t notch in the Group Stages);

Davor Suker with 6 for 3rd placed Croatia in 1998;

Miroslav Klose with 5 for Germany in 2006 (Klose also scored 5 in 2002, all with his head, which must be all the more galling for the Polish FA, as Klose was born in Poland, and has stated he’d have played for Poland if he’d been asked sooner!!.)

The Unknown

Salvatore Schillachi scored 6 goals for Italy at Italia’90. (Schillachi, only made his debut in the group stages, and played only 16 times in total for Italy, scoring only one more goal following the World Cup)

The Downright Lucky

Oleg Salenko - Salenko scored 6 goals in the 1994 World Cup, finishing joint top scorer with Hristo Stoichkov (Salenko scored 5 goals against Cameroon and an additional penalty against Sweden. Salenko did not score in any other game other than these 2 in his entire international career).

Based on the above, it would seem, that more times than not, the cream tends to rise to the top, that means the front runners this time around, must be, Spain’s, Fernando Torres and David Villa, Fabiano of Brazil, Miroslav Klose, a previous winner returning with Germany, Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal, Argentina’s, Lionel Messi and Wayne Rooney of England. Of this list, Messi and Ronaldo come in the World Cup on the back of blistering Club form, a form, however that they struggle to replicate in the International arena. Rooney and Torres are both returning from injury and Klose has been struggling to make the first team for his club side Bayern Munich. This leaves Fabiano and Villa, who interestingly both sit at the top of the goals to games ratio of the aforementioned group of players, Villa with 67% and Fabiano with 69% (Ronaldo and Messi, by way of comparison have a record of 32% and 30% respectively for their National teams). Given the toughness of the Brazil’s group, compared to that of Spain (Brazil face Portugal, Ivory Coast and North Korea, whilst Spain face a more straightforward Chile, Switzerland and Honduras) and the fact that I anticipate Spain progressing further in the tournament, then if the Golden Boot winner was to come from this group, then Id plump for David Villa, currently being quoted at odds of 10/1, a more than decent bet!

So what about that second group, that underbelly of potential waiting to etch itself onto the World’s consciousness?? This group would have to include, Ivory Coast’s, Didier Drogba, Higuain of Argentina, Nilmar of Brazil, Italy’s Gilardino, Robin Van Persie of Holland, Samuel Eto’o of Cameroon, Germany’s Lucas Podolski, in fact the list could go on, Aguero, Kaka, Milito, Lopez, Robinho, Tevez, Huntelaar, Defoe, Henry, Forlan. From this group, based on club form and reliant on their team’s consistency of performance, not demonstrated in the qualifying campaign, Higuain and Militio of Argentina must both be woth a punt and at odds of 20/1 and 60/1 respectively, there is definitely value there.

So this leaves, the unknown - this tournaments “Schillachi”, who comes from nowhere to upstage the superstars, the player furthest from your mind when considering the Golden Boot winner, well whisper it quietly, but Giuseppe Rossi, may just fit the bill. Diminutive, goal poacher, Italian, on the fringes of the first team, sound familiar?? With an eye for goal, and rated highly by Marcello Lippi, Rossi at odds of 66/1, certainly makes an attractive each way bet.

And as for the “Downright Lucky”, well lets just hope that accolade goes to an Englishman, who’s barrage of unexpected goals propels us towards the final. Peter Crouch anyone………………???!!!

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