More Draw Analysis

December 10, 2009

And so the draw has been done. Now the tournament has some shape and we can see how it is going to be. Speculation is a fool’s paradise though. Anyone with experience of the World Cup knows that you go throw away the form guide. Yes the heavyweights usually prevail but which ones?

In 2002, Germany took on Brazil in the final but who would have thought that defending champions France would not score a single goal? Who would have predicted that Portugal wouldn’t advance while South Korea who had never won a match before would? Who would have though that Turkey would make it as far as the semi-finals?

Then again should anyone be surprised about anything after Cameroon defeated defending champion Argentina in the opening game of the 1990 World Cup? Wasn’t this the shock to end all shocks? This was a million times more surprising than anything we will ever see again. Even more so as African sides were no where as strong as they are now. This would be the equivalent of North Korea defeating Brazil.

Having said all that, it is a pretty reasonable draw. This is because the quality of world football has considerably risen over the years.

Group A contains South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay and France. This is a fair group because France cancels out the hosts who shouldn’t have been a seed. France were one of two European sides who were unlucky in not being seeded.

Portugal were the other one and find themselves in a group alongside Brazil, North Korea and the Ivory Coast. North Korea are obviously an unknown entity, but without the comforts of playing in Pyongyang this should leave the other three playing for two spots. Soccer betting isn’t sure what to do here and is putting a lot of weight on the Portugal - Ivory Coast clash.

In 1994, Argentina were in a group with Nigeria, Bulgaria and Greece where they finished third. Scratch out Bulgaria and insert South Korea. Greece didn’t score a goal then and should have a much tighter defence this time round.

England find themselves alongside Algeria, Slovenia and the USA. Slovenia made it after defeating Russia in a play-off. You would think that England and the USA would advance.

In the Round of 16 they are paired with Group D’s Germany, Australia, Serbia and Ghana. Serbia topped their qualifying group which included France. It will be a tough group and on their own continent Ghana will be a handful. You would expect Germany to finish top, but don’t discount Australia.

After a run of horror draws, Netherlands will be pleased with theirs. Denmark, Japan and Cameroon don’t pose that many headaches.

World Champions Italy got the dream group of Slovakia, Paraguay and New Zealand.

Finally Group H is an interesting one of Spain, Switzerland, Honduras and Chile. You would expect Spain to advance, but then again its Spain we’re talking about.

So there you have it. There will be a lot of speculation until 11 June which is when it all gets under way. Until then, take everything you read with a grain of salt.

David Wiseman writes for this blog. He also writes about harness betting.

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