South Africa - What Can The Hosts Expect

February 11, 2010

The countdown for the 2010 FIFA World Cup has well and truly started. The groups have been drawn, the fixtures have been generated and the fans are beginning to organise travel and accommodation for the 64 games which will take place. But the big question on everyone’s lips is; who is going to lift the trophy on July 11^th. According to the bookies it is going to be one of Spain, Brazil or England with the possibility of an Argentine or Italian victory.

But one team who aren’t even being seriously considered are the hosts, South Africa. If you look at the team’s world ranking and recent performances then it is clear to see why they aren’t being tipped for glory. They are currently in 81^st position in the rankings, below such footballing giants as Panama, Cyprus and Uzbekistan – in African terms they are the 16^th best nation in Africa. They even failed to reach the recent African Cup of Nations due to only finishing 3^rd in their qualification group. Recent matches have seen defeats to Norway and Iceland, of whom neither are playing in this summer’s tournament. A nil-nil draw with Jamaica forced the South African coach to state “a lot of work needs to be done” and the team “not being in good shape at the moment”.

So all looks very bleak as far as the hosts’ prospects go for this summer; but a look back at the history of the hosts’ performance in football greatest tournament may offer a beacon of hope to the Bafana Bafana. It is a well known fact among football fans that no side hosting the tournament has failed to reach at least the second stage of the competition – even Japan and South Korea both did it in 2002 (the latter eventually finishing in 3^rd place). On six occasions the hosts have went on to lift the Cup, the most recent of these teams being the French is 1998 when the likes of Barthez, Thuram and Zidane inspired an unlikely win which saw over 1 million people descend on the streets of Paris after the final.

Another reason for South African optimism is the seedings of the nations during the group stages of the World Cup. Despite being one of the lowest ranked nations in the tournament, the side found themselves in the highest pot during the draw, only because they are the hosts and organisers of the tournament. To be in the same grouping as Brazil and Spain when the likes of France and Portugal were in the next pot down seemed like an unfair advantage to the hosts. But this is the way FIFA has organised the World Cup for many years now; Japan and South Korea were also in the top seedings in 2002 when England and the again unfortunate Portuguese found themselves in the next tier down.

The group that the South Africans have been handed is also pointing at a strong case for the nation having a successful World Cup. Although they have former winners France and Uruguay in their group, neither side is a shade of their former glorious self; the French very lucky to be involved at all after the now infamous “Henrygate” cheating scandal and the Uruguayans only securing a place after a slender 2-1 victory over Costa Rica last November to take the final place in the finals. The other team in their group is Mexico, a side who are regarded by many as the perennial underachievers; never having reached at least the quarter finals in any tournament out with their own country. The two times Mexico has held the World Cup, the side reached the quarters in both tournaments; again showing the advantage the hosts have over their fellow competitors.

So South Africa 2010 promises to be another great tournament, and the hosts can also look forward to a successful tournament if they just stick with tradition and follow the trend set by hosts of previous tournaments. The odds on a South African victory; 150-1. Chances of winning; unlikely – but perhaps worth an each way flutter.

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